Looking For The Next One; Part 2, Finding Risk Rather Easily


Source: Alhambra Partners, by Jeffrey P. Snider

Part 1 is here, Orderly or Not (short version: not).

Also noted yesterday, the Fed sees no risks of bubble trouble because they are looking at it all from the 2008 perspective. That is completely wrong-headed; if there is a “next one” it will have nothing to do with subprime mortgages, or even mortgages and real estate. By March 2007, the conventional estimate is that there were $1.3 trillion in subprime mortgages outstanding, all of which caused inordinate decay in liquidity and pricing through wholesale mechanisms that turned out to be disastrously self-feeding and often contradictory (as an example, tranche pricing through correlation trading where correlation estimates were based on CDS prices derived from liquidity in hedging demand which traced back to tranche pricing). Everyone seems to simply assume that the subprime problem ended in 2008, if only by crash.

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